Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Happy New Year 2017

Happy New Year to everyone and welcome to my humble blog.

2016 brought us the Brexit and Trump :D

2017 looks like it's shaping up to be a very very interesting year. Markets are all bubbly and happy but will this last? Well we'll see, in the mean time, keep vested, enjoy your dividends and polish your elephant guns!

Sunday, December 4, 2016

CDW Holdings (BXE.SI) : Another big round of share buy backs.

CDW Holdings (BXE.SI) : Another big round of share buy backs.

Massive share buy back exercise ongoing after Q3 results. so far hit 1.33m+ shares liao. Ongoing in a big way today as well. It is still trading around 97% net cash value @ 0.255 price, though price has gone up roughly 10% from 22c levels a couple weeks ago.

I vaguely remembered that they did do some big buybacks in 2012. So went back and had another look. Indeed they purchased 19,229,000 out of the authorized 47,748,000 shares from Oct 2012 right till the beginning of Jan 2013. This was later given out mostly as employee stock options to management. Some getting as much as 2m+ shares. The share price was pushed up 50% during this exercise. Treasury shares got boosted to 44,632,000

This time round, the authorized number is 23,745,700(which is about the same as last time, factoring the 2:1 share consolidation. So far as of closing last friday, company has bought back 1,332,300 only. Treasury shares stand at 15,552,302. It is very likely CDW will buy back another 7-8million shares to top up the treasury.

I was waiting for the usual insider buys to go with the share buybacks but looking at 2012's buybacks exercise, it seems management will not be doing any buying, unlike what Avi-tech's boss did. 

In 2012, CDW recorded a jump in revenue and profits in their 4Q report right after their massive buy back exercise. In this 3rd quarterly report management has hinted they were in testing phase for volume production of their new product with a new client. They have also cleared out a factory in China for future OEM production. It seems with this buy back exercise, this testing may have been successful and company could be announcing a big deal in next year's 4Q, commencing mass production at the cleared up factory. Of course this is speculation at this point.

In any case, being at net cash value, I have finally decided to start accumulating despite a slightly improving market from oil price recovery, as I feel should 4Q result be bad, downside is limited whilst upside could be substantial if history repeats.

[author has shares in CDW Holdings.]

Monday, November 28, 2016

PNE Industries (BDA.SI) - Full Year 2016 Results Update

PNE Industries (BDA.SI) - Full Year 2016 Results Update

Wow the year is almost over. PNE Industries finally released their full year results for 2016. Most of it has come in as expected. The stock has run up from 60c lows to hot above 80c these past few months.

Revenue has remained somewhat flat YoY at 74m. There was a sizeable contribution of 6.7m from the sale of PNE Print which has boosted profits. Excluding this gain, profit for the year would be $9.5m. That's pretty good. It also seems PNE has and will continue to benefit from the depreciation of the ringgit and appreciation of US dollar. Given that Ringgit has recently fallen even more recently and will likely continue to fall as funds move out of emerging markets, we should expect PNE to benefit from forex gains and lower costs of production from PNE's Malaysian factories.

Dividend of 3 cents was announced, including the 5c interim paid out already, 8c from a total of 19.3c EPS comes to about a 40% payout ratio. This is pretty ok for OPMI but somehow doesn't feel as generous as before. Perhaps management is planning to utilize the spare cash for something else.

One thing that sticks out is that PNE has initially announced that USD 7.366m(~SGD 9.94m using a rate of 1.35 as when this report was made) was received as payment for PNE Print with another 1m RMB(~SGD 200k) withheld by Chinese tax authorities. If that is the case, both figures of SGD6.7m as the "gain on disposal" and SGD8.748m as "proceeds from disposal of subsidiary",  do not match up with the SGD 9.94m that was supposed to come into the bank as announced on 18 April 2016. Even taking a lousy rate of 1.2x USD/SGD, at least 9.2m proceeds should have appeared on the books.  This shortfall of a million SGD is either a mistake from the accounting department or some other reason.

In any case, NAV is now 96c and the balance sheet is looking fantastic with no debt and net cash of 60% of market cap, so hopefully there will be some volume to sell into over the next few days and for the stock price to hit NAV.